AGP Executive Report

AI and Tech: India’s HCLTech has partnered with Anthropic to develop enterprise AI solutions, while a broader AI investment surge is boosting US earnings and adding to companies’ borrowing needs. Sanctions and Trade: The EU imposed its largest single round of Russia-related listings, targeting nearly 1,600 people and companies linked to the arms industry. Markets: Major banks report this week, with investors watching how rising bond yields affect earnings and the wider economy. Malaysia’s Growth Push: Budget 2027 offers tax incentives for technology and green investment, plus RM60 million to help local exporters diversify markets. Global Outlook: The IMF says the AI boom is helping keep global growth near 3%, with Asia set to gain; China also reported a continued economic improvement in Q3. Food Industry: McCain Foods agreed to buy a Gujarat potato-processing business, adding a facility, more than 450 employees and links to over 1,000 farmers.

Investment: Revolut plans to invest nearly S$350 million in Singapore over five years, open a new financial-district office and expand its workforce beyond 300. Asia-Pacific Markets: Hong Kong retained its title as the world’s freest economy, with Singapore ranking third. South Korea’s major companies are increasingly targeting renewables and robotics. Deals: Kip McGrath’s board backed Jamie Beaton’s revised A$51 million takeover offer for the tutoring company. Singapore’s competition watchdog is seeking feedback on ENEOS’s proposed acquisition of Chevron Singapore’s operations. Economic Outlook: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that AI, high energy prices and record public debt are testing the global economy, urging investment in skills and digital infrastructure alongside stronger fiscal plans. Jobs and Industry: A proposed Heriot-Watt brewing and distilling hub could support 1,570 jobs across Scotland and add £53 million a year to the economy. Trade: Indonesia and Egypt are pushing for a partnership agreement and joint investment fund to deepen commercial ties.

Tax and Compliance: Bahrain businesses are preparing for proposed corporate tax of 10% on qualifying profits and a planned e-invoicing mandate, both expected to reshape financial systems from 2027. Malaysia’s Budget: The minimum wage is set to rise to RM2,000 at larger companies from June 2027, covering more than four million workers, alongside support for first-time homebuyers and gig workers. Global Outlook: IMF and World Bank meetings in Thailand face mounting concern over the Iran war’s energy shock, with higher diesel and fertilizer costs and interest rates threatening already-slowing growth. India’s IPO Market: A dozen firms, including Jio Platforms and Zetwerk, are expected to seek public listings this month, extending a fundraising boom that has brought in more than ₹1.1 lakh crore so far in 2026. UK Economy: Economists expect GDP to have fallen 0.1% in August, putting added pressure on the government ahead of a difficult Budget.

Currency Pressure: India’s central bank opened a special dollar facility for state-run oil companies as the rupee weakens, aiming to ease pressure on energy importers. Oil and Geopolitics: U.S. plans to ease access to Russian diesel drew bipartisan criticism over potential revenue for Moscow and uncertainty about whether supplies will lower fuel prices. Malaysia’s Budget: The 2027 plan pairs fiscal restraint with business-focused tax measures and a RM50 million semiconductor fund. Critical Minerals: Malawi has begun extracting rare earths at Kangankunde, hoping local processing can attract investment and link the country to clean-energy and technology supply chains. Economic Signals: Fitch raised Nigeria’s outlook to positive, citing stronger reserves, while German business insolvencies climbed 6.9% amid ongoing economic strain. Canada’s economy also lost 68,000 jobs in September.

Malaysia’s 2027 Budget: The government is targeting growth of 4.2%–5.2% while narrowing the fiscal deficit to 3.3% of GDP. A new RM150 million fund backed by Selangor, Penang and Khazanah will help semiconductor and advanced-technology firms expand. US Economy: Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than a decade in September as prices stayed high; employers added just 29,000 jobs and unemployment rose. Investment Climate: A US State Department report warns that insecurity, corruption and regulatory uncertainty continue to deter investors in Nigeria, despite signs of economic stabilisation. Business Reform: Tanzania plans to ease barriers to finance, land and markets, and formalise informal businesses. In Albania, manufacturers are pressing for lower taxes on food processing and duty relief on imported machinery and materials. Clean Energy: India’s Premier Energies secured solar and project orders worth more than ₹4,000 crore in the July–September quarter, as it expands manufacturing capacity. China’s Consumer Market: AI devices, including smart glasses and companion robots, drew shoppers during the National Day holiday, as the technology moves further into mainstream retail.

Global Outlook: World growth is forecast to slow to 2.6% in 2026 as the Middle East crisis weighs on activity. Canada: The economy shed 68,000 jobs in September, adding to concerns over consumer confidence. Energy Policy: The EU has begun discussions on taxing energy companies’ windfall profits, a move that could reshape returns across the sector. Malaysia: Budget 2027 measures aim to draw investment into high-value industries, with a proposed 5% tax rate for qualifying global services hubs for up to 30 years. UK Business: Marks & Spencer chief Stuart Machin urged the government to reverse recent tax and cost pressures, arguing they are hurting businesses and growth. Corporate Deals: Gran Tierra shareholders approved the roughly US$1.33 billion sale of its Colombian and Ecuadorian operations, with the company expecting to emerge debt-free.

Small-Business Support: The Bahamas is pairing a new survey of firms’ access to financial services with a plan to match businesses facing succession challenges with buyers and investors. Trade and Growth: Seven Puerto Rican companies joined a trade mission to Texas to pursue export opportunities; EU and Turkish business leaders meet in Brussels next week to discuss investment and supply-chain ties. Nigeria is targeting 10.34% annual growth by 2030, with private investors expected to fund about 72% of planned investment. Costs and Hiring: Australian small-business hiring rose 0.8% in September, but wage growth cooled as employers prioritized keeping staff. In Spain, 89% of companies expect raw-material costs to rise over the next year, with energy prices a major concern. Corporate Outlook: Nearly half of surveyed Russian companies do not plan year-end bonuses, citing financial pressure from taxes, borrowing costs and weak demand. By contrast, analysts expect US third-quarter earnings to rise 31% year on year, with AI-related companies driving much of the gain. Tax Relief: India’s GST Council proposed faster refunds and lower penalties to reduce compliance costs and disputes for businesses.

Sanctions and Trade: The U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions on 27 companies, six people and 22 vessels, targeting networks involved in oil sales and sanctions evasion. Growth Outlook: Rwanda’s economy grew 9.7% in the first half of 2026, led by industry and services, though the central bank warned that Middle East tensions could raise trade and transport costs. Investment: Greece opened the Skouries mine, a project exceeding $2 billion that is expected to produce copper and gold and draw further investment. Global Risks: The IMF warned that conflict, rising debt and the AI boom are combining to create new risks for the global economy. Corporate Earnings: PepsiCo plans cost cuts as weaker North American business weighs on its profit outlook.

Corporate Outlook: PepsiCo beat third-quarter expectations but cut its annual profit outlook as weak North American demand and higher costs persist; it plans more cost cuts and price increases. Global Risks: The IMF says AI investment could boost growth, but energy shocks and rising public debt are adding pressure to economies and markets. Investment & Industry: Penang attracted RM18.2 billion in U.S. manufacturing investment from 2020 through the first half of 2026, and is looking to grow homegrown semiconductor firms. Malaysia’s central bank economist warns that businesses may eventually pass rising input costs on to consumers. South Asia: Bangladesh’s agriculture sector continued to expand, but weak investment, energy shortages and falling employment are weighing on the broader economy. Cybersecurity: Japanese authorities say ransomware group Qilin has targeted 53 companies, across sectors including manufacturing, services and construction.

Public Finance: Malaysia has recovered RM31.3 billion linked to 1MDB, but still faces RM20.1 billion in obligations after paying RM42.5 billion; it is also preparing stricter governance rules for state-owned companies. Energy and Inflation: The IMF chief warns that energy shocks and surging AI demand are pulling the global economy in opposing directions. Record diesel prices are squeezing truckers and could raise the cost of goods. AI and Markets: Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin says the AI investment boom could deliver productivity gains but carries risks from tightly linked company commitments and rising borrowing. Capital and Trade: Vietnamese banks are seeking $7 billion from investors as the economy runs hot, while Ireland’s watchdog warns the economy has become dangerously reliant on three US companies. Resilience: Israel’s economy continues to grow despite years of war and global pressure.

AI & Productivity: APO’s 2026 Productivity Databook tracks Asia’s growth and labour productivity trends from 1970–2024, with projections to 2035, showing productivity growth moderating in recent years. SME Finance & Growth: Penang pushes Budget 2027 support for its Penang Technology Financial Centre to widen capital access for startups and SMEs, while Duluth’s “Seeds for Growth” expo drew 100+ owners seeking practical scaling help. Travel & Tourism Outlook: WTTC’s Malta summit opens with forecasts that Europe’s travel and tourism will grow faster than the wider economy in 2026. Business Regulation & Compliance: Malaysia launched an HR due diligence guide for companies to manage human-rights risks, and CPA Australia urged a 10% cut in compliance costs by 2030. Trade & Logistics: Johor Port explores a Belawan–Johor maritime corridor to strengthen Malaysia–Indonesia trade links; Cebu cargo handlers seek a 25% tariff rise, but local chambers want a staggered rollout to protect MSMEs. Energy & Markets: Sri Lanka’s energy minister says the government may seek legal advice if private fuel firms restrict supply. Tech Governance: Meta’s Oversight Board warns AI firms that independent safety committees need real power, not symbolism.

Semiconductors & Jobs: Malaysia says 21,391 people have been trained for the semiconductor sector as of June 2026, aiming for 60,000 skilled workers by 2030 to support higher-value chip work. Port Costs & MSMEs: Cebu cargo-handling operators want a 25% fee hike, but business chambers warn a sudden jump could squeeze micro, small and medium firms and raise consumer prices; they push a staggered rollout. Corporate Reshuffle in Asia: AkzoNobel will sell its South East Asia decorative paints business to Nippon Paint for about $1.35bn, narrowing focus to coatings and other units. Local Business Relief: Maryland’s Purple Line is nearing completion, and the state is offering support to small businesses still struggling with construction disruption. Regulation & Compliance: Georgia fined two companies $42,500 over installing engines at a data center and power plant before permits were secured. Cannabis Licensing Rules: Front Royal, Virginia must set zoning limits for cannabis businesses as the state licensing process ramps up. Trade Within Africa: A new survey finds 81.3% of African CEOs expect cross-border activity to grow, even as intra-Africa trade shares remain modest. AI & Business Reality: A business-focused piece argues AI grounding and decision-making limits will shape where automation succeeds or breaks first.

AI & Compliance: UK firms are racing to adopt AI, but many still run key compliance work through spreadsheets and email chains, widening a practical “technology gap” that can weaken risk control. Cybersecurity & Retail: Asos is investigating after customers received a push message claiming hackers had “fully compromised” a Snowflake instance, sparking fears of data exposure even as the retailer says it hasn’t confirmed a breach. Climate Liability in Court: The US Supreme Court heard arguments in City of Boulder v. Suncor and Exxon over whether oil companies can be held financially liable for climate harms, with major implications for future climate lawsuits. Middle East Growth Hit: The World Bank cut its 2026 forecast for the region, projecting a 2.1% contraction as the Iran war disrupts energy supplies and hits tourism, aviation and logistics. Business Operations & Jobs: airBaltic plans 500–700 job cuts as it reshapes its network and workforce, while British Airways rolls out a major A380 retrofit featuring the “world’s biggest” business class cabin. Local Business & Policy: Malaysia’s AICB and compliance groups call for stronger intelligence sharing to fight cross-border financial crime, while Sri Lanka’s economy has returned to pre-crisis levels but poverty and jobs lag.

AI Governance: NYC Council held a first-of-its-kind hearing with AI whistleblowers and major tech firms, weighing safety rules like human overrides, whistleblower protections, and transparency as companies face tough questions on catastrophic risk. Climate Liability: The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on whether cities can sue oil and gas firms over climate-driven disasters, with justices split on legal pathways that could reshape industry exposure. Sanctions & Finance: The U.S. Treasury warned foreign financial institutions that doing business with Iran’s financial sector could trigger sanctions without advance notice. Business Confidence: New Zealand business confidence jumped to its highest in over a year, even as firms reported softer current demand and still-strong uncertainty. Local Business Impact: Rochester business owners criticized a “Business Forward” program for focusing on marketing and wayfinding rather than direct financial help during Link BRT construction. Corporate Updates: India’s Accord Transformer & Switchgear reported sharp H1 FY27 revenue growth; Axis Bank posted strong advances and deposits; Metropolis Healthcare said Q2 FY27 revenue rose ~15% with margin gains. Legal/Investor Alerts: New class actions were filed over Integra LifeSciences and Coastal Financial, while UWM investors face a separate securities-fraud lawsuit deadline. SME & Growth Programs: Endeavor Heartland’s ScaleUp Accelerator added eight retail-focused companies, and Southern University won funding to build a rural business center in Louisiana.

Energy & Courts: The US Supreme Court is set to hear whether cities can sue oil companies for climate damages, as Saudi Aramco warns global oil stockpiles are “scarily thin” amid Hormuz disruption fears. Corporate Deals: Yinson Holdings’ Ghana FPSO John Agyekum Kufuor gets a contract amendment with Eni, extending the lease to 2036 and adding about US$600m to backlog; Alfa Laval starts full integration of Desmet to strengthen oils, fats and biofuels. Tech & Policy: Malaysia pushes for a dedicated AI upskilling scheme for MSMEs, while JPJ temporarily suspends Zetrix AI services as collection agents—raising near-term business and compliance questions. Markets & Macro: AMRO lifts Malaysia’s growth forecast on AI-related exports and investment; euro-zone services PMI hits a near-3.5-year high despite inflation worries. Business Innovation: BBC Studios and BBC News launch “Africa Enterprise” to spotlight African CEOs and investment opportunities. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: India and UAE discuss expanding trade and business cooperation; Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE sign a railway corridor plan linking Central Asia to Pakistan’s seaports. Local Economy: South Africa’s community-owned Elmboog Organiese Boerdery grows export-ready organic raisins, showing how land reform can translate into revenue.

AI & Skills Pay: Singapore’s 2026/27 salary guide says AI, data and cybersecurity talent can command top pay (up to $15,000 monthly), even as employers stay cautious on broader hiring and wage growth. Quantum & Chips Push: IonQ and EPB Quantum roll out CQ Connect to help firms find practical quantum uses, while Japan’s Rapidus partners with 17 design companies to expand advanced chip customers. Business Growth & Investment: Alexy Metals lands on the Inc. 5000 list after 125% three-year revenue growth, and Ivo opens a Sydney office to support contract-intelligence customers as its Asia-Pacific base grows 40% in a year. Trade & Competition Pressure: Ghanaian firms warn they’re squeezed by expensive credit and cheaper imports, making local manufacturing harder and jobs at risk. Wage Hikes Hit MSMEs: In Central Visayas, Cebu business groups say the P42 wage increase will raise costs faster than productivity for small firms. Infrastructure & Regulation: Singapore’s MPA plans an AI-backed ship-registration system to cut processing from days to minutes, while Australia’s minerals sector argues modern-slavery rule changes could add burdens on small suppliers. Local Economy Watch: Victoria’s visitor economy stays strong, with accommodation occupancy at 80.3% and higher room rates through Sept. 30.