AGP Executive Report

Commodity Outlook: The World Bank forecasts a 23% rise in commodity prices this year, with energy costs up 32% as conflict disrupts oil supplies and grain shipments. Brent crude is projected to average $91 a barrel. UK Budget: Britain’s new budget offers energy-bill support but raises taxes; growth forecasts have been downgraded, and the tax burden is expected to hit a postwar high, drawing concern from business groups. US-China Trade: Washington will block imports from three Chinese genetics companies over alleged links to forced labor in Xinjiang, adding pressure to biotech supply chains. Asia’s Economic Shift: Kazakhstan’s president urged wider AI adoption across industry, agriculture and mining, while an ASEAN forum called for investment and skills training to turn the green transition into jobs. Investment Scrutiny: Malaysia says an investigation into pension fund KWAP’s roughly RM200 million investment in Indonesia’s eFishery has found no evidence of corruption so far; the company was later found to have misrepresented financial information.

Malaysia’s Digital Boom: The country’s digital economy is projected to reach US$48 billion in gross merchandise value this year, growing 20% and matching Vietnam for Southeast Asia’s fastest pace. Nearly half of Malaysia’s AI use is enterprise-led. Investment and Energy Costs: Malaysian materials firm Vertex Material signed a US$2.2 billion, 15-year supply deal covering the US, Canada and India, and plans a US Nasdaq listing to raise up to US$400 million. Separately, Kenanga Investment Bank raised its 2026 producer-price growth forecast to 7.4%, citing energy-market risks. Belgian Nuclear Sector: Six in 10 companies are delaying investment decisions amid uncertainty over government energy policy, putting plans in a sector that generates more than €9 billion annually at risk. UK Business Strain: A record 738,144 UK businesses are in financial distress ahead of the Budget. Nepal Flood Losses: Floods caused an estimated Rs9.69 billion in damage to businesses and enterprises, within Rs79.17 billion in total private losses.

Consumer Outlook: U.S. confidence rebounded modestly in October as gas prices eased, though they remain high. UK Economy: Two-thirds of Britons expect conditions to worsen, and 70% anticipate tax hikes in Wednesday’s Budget; business distress has reached a record high as firms warn rising wage costs could threaten jobs. Energy Deals: EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock deal valuing the combined company at more than $50 billion, pending approvals. Industrial Automation: Valmet will acquire Tieto’s manufacturing software business to expand its pulp-and-paper automation offering. Growth and Trade: South Korea’s economy grew 1% in the third quarter, driven by semiconductor exports, while Kazakhstan’s GDP is nearing $400 billion. Rates and Currency: Pakistani business leaders say a rate rise to 12% will raise borrowing costs; in Brazil, companies turned to stablecoins amid election-driven currency concerns. Leadership Change: Cooper Companies CEO Al White stepped down as the medical-device maker’s board cited disappointing performance and begins a search for a successor.

Asia’s Growth: South Korea’s economy grew 1% in the third quarter, more than triple the central bank’s forecast, as semiconductor exports surged despite weaker spending. Industry Investment: Infineon plans to invest €1.1 billion in Austrian production of gallium-nitride chips, while Intel has agreed to acquire Israeli quantum-software firm Classiq. Trade Finance: Africa Finance Corporation and Munich Re launched a $1 billion risk-sharing programme to expand trade lending through 38 financial institutions in 11 countries. UK Business Climate: More than 44,000 UK firms are in critical financial distress, a two-decade high, even as Yorkshire and Northern Ireland report declines in the most severe cases. Business leaders warn that costs and Budget uncertainty are still curbing investment. AI Risks: Elon Musk warned that heavy debt could sink scores of AI cloud companies, sharpening concerns over whether the sector’s rapid expansion can deliver lasting returns.

AI Investment: Elon Musk warned that more than 200 AI cloud companies could fail as lenders pull back, while Goldman Sachs says AI’s boost to U.S. growth may peak by early 2027. Apollo says AI has yet to deliver broad financial returns outside the tech sector. Corporate Deals: Sweden’s Stena agreed to acquire Norway’s Color Line, joining two major European ferry operators; Color carried nearly 3.6 million passengers in 2025. Economic Pulse: German business sentiment rose for a sixth straight month, and UK output accelerated despite persistent price pressures. The U.S. economy grew 2.2% in the second quarter, led by consumer spending. Business Risks: UK small firms report rising costs ahead of the Budget, while Ukraine’s prime minister warned of a $1.5 billion budget gap and urged businesses to prepare for worst-case conditions. Capital Markets: UAE licensed companies increased 43% in the first nine months of 2026, as market value reached AED 3.7 trillion.

Banking: HSBC plans to fold Hang Seng’s $50 billion asset-management unit into its $876 billion fund business, the first major business-line integration since its $13.6 billion takeover. European Economy: German business confidence rose for a sixth straight month, with the Ifo index at 90.2 and the government upgrading its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%. War’s Economic Toll: Israel’s wars have cost more than $100 billion, with an estimated $57 billion hit to GDP and public debt now above 68% of GDP. US Outlook: Inflation reached 3.7% in September even as second-quarter growth was revised up to 2.2%, sharpening cost-of-living concerns ahead of the midterms. AI Investment: Shares of cloud-computing firms CoreWeave and Nebius have fallen more than 30% this month, as investors weigh funding risks and warnings of industry failures. Southeast Asia Energy: Malaysia expects local contractors and engineers to gain from a Petronas-TNB partnership to transmit offshore wind power from Vietnam to Singapore.

Currency and Power Costs: The Philippine peso hit a record low of 63.615 to the dollar, prompting lawmakers to demand that utilities justify any rate increases tied to the currency’s slide. Trade Links: Qatar and Kyrgyzstan agreed to create a joint business council to encourage trade and investment, while Nepal earned 5.925 billion rupees from electricity exports to India despite flood damage to hydropower plants. Investment and AI: US state and local elections could shape data-center expansion, as technology firms plan more than $1 trillion in investment for 2027 and local officials hold significant sway over construction and energy infrastructure. Business Pressures: Pakistan’s business groups warn that higher interest rates could curb investment and jobs, while rising oil costs and tariffs threaten to squeeze companies, including flooring makers facing a reported 25% loss of business.

Power and Data: Johor plans to add about 5 gigawatts of solar capacity as data centres drive a sharp rise in electricity demand; 65 projects have been approved, with 4–5GW of further demand expected from projects under construction or planned. Oil Markets: Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel, its highest level in nearly six months, amid fears of Middle East supply disruptions; it rose 6% over the week. Investment: Brookfield has opened a Doha office for its global credit business, deepening its Gulf presence as it pursues a planned $20 billion AI infrastructure venture with Qatar’s Qai. India Capex: Private investment plans reached ₹99.7 lakh crore in September, up 39% year on year, but concentration in a few sectors and states raises lending and delivery risks. Agriculture: Wheat futures are heading for an eighth straight weekly decline, as expectations of a large global harvest ease supply concerns despite Black Sea disruptions. Jordan’s Economy: GDP grew 3% in the second quarter, while industrial production rose 0.62% in the first eight months, with tourism and manufacturing supporting activity.

Trade Outlook: Donald Trump said the US could do business with both Ukraine and Russia after their war ends, and cited a US-Ukraine resources deal he said could be worth up to $1 trillion. European Slowdown: French business activity contracted in October, with weaker demand and political uncertainty weighing on both services and manufacturing. Investment Shift: German companies are looking to expand in India over the next three to five years, increasingly treating it as a manufacturing, research and innovation partner. Regional Risks: The IMF says attacks have had limited impact on Saudi Arabia so far, but projects the economy will contract 3.3% this year amid regional conflict. US Economy: Inflation data and major earnings reports are due this week as consumer confidence and household budgets remain under pressure.

Trade: President Donald Trump removed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods, including packaging, machinery and refrigeration equipment, easing costs for U.S. farmers and producers that rely on those supplies. France: Protests and looting have disrupted businesses, with thousands affected; state-backed Bpifrance is offering zero-interest loans of €5,000 to €50,000 to help damaged firms reopen and restock. India: MSME confidence rose to 60.4 in July–September, up from 59.3, though access to finance remains uneven. Separately, Adani Wind secured 696 MW in orders and says its external order book has topped 1 GW. Malaysia: Selangor is targeting RM90 billion in investment this year after recording RM70 billion in approved projects in the first half. Corporate results: BPCL’s second-quarter profit fell 22.5% as a fuel-price freeze squeezed earnings despite higher revenue; Omnicom reported 7.2% organic growth, led by its media business.

Philippines Investment Climate: The Ombudsman plans an “Investors’ Window” for businesses to report officials demanding bribes or a share of earnings—an effort to confront corruption that raises costs and deters investment. South Asian Trade: Sri Lankan firms are pitching hospitality products and services to buyers in the Maldives, seeking partnerships in a tourism market closely tied to Sri Lanka. Agriculture Supply Chains: India’s Arya.ag is entering the apple trade with grading, storage and financing, aiming to connect Himachal growers with organised buyers and reduce pressure to sell the seasonal crop quickly. Industrial Policy: Malaysia is urging local companies to develop higher-value products, technology and export capacity to curb import dependence. At a Pasadena business summit, a U.S. Chamber official warned that tariffs, immigration curbs and the Iran conflict are weighing on growth and fuelling inflation.

Investment Climate: The Philippines’ ombudsman is opening an “Investors’ Window” for businesses to report officials demanding bribes or payments for permits and services, saying extortion is raising costs and discouraging investment. Digital Economy: AI infrastructure demand is tightening memory-chip supplies and threatening to push up smartphone prices in the mobile-first Philippines, potentially limiting access to digital services. Trade and Logistics: China-Europe freight trips via the eastern corridor topped 6,024 this year, up 40.3% from a year earlier. Economic Outlook: Euro-area business activity slowed in October, with the composite PMI easing to 51.9 from 53.1; French services contracted amid political tensions and unrest. Energy Deals: Oryx Energies agreed to sell its Tanzanian gas business to local operator ASAS, pending regulatory approval, as it reviews assets and shifts investment priorities. AI Spending: A business opinion argues companies should choose AI for practical needs rather than complexity, citing a study in which 95% of organizations reported no measurable return from generative AI.

Türkiye’s Growth: Türkiye averaged 5.5% annual GDP growth over the past 23 years, according to remarks at an economic forum in Istanbul. Cybersecurity: Companies and governments are racing to patch serious PHP flaws after a surge in hacking attempts; the vulnerabilities have disrupted or prompted precautionary shutdowns of services worldwide. AI and Jobs: California’s economy is benefiting from major AI and defense investment, but weak hiring remains a concern. Data Center Investment: Indonesian operators warn that forcing new data centers into industrial estates could raise costs and restrict sites as AI demand drives investment. Malaysia’s 1MDB Bill: The government estimates its remaining net financial burden at RM20.1 billion after recovering RM31.3 billion in funds and assets. Pricing Lawsuits: New class-action claims against McDonald’s and Expedia highlight growing legal risks for companies using algorithms to set prices.

Digital Growth: Oman launched a 2026–30 plan targeting RO1.5 billion in GDP contribution from the digital economy, RO300 million in tech investment and 3,000 jobs a year. China’s economy grew 4.6% in the first three quarters, reaching 107.1 trillion yuan. Business Stress: US small-business Chapter 11 filings hit 1,660 through September, with construction and healthcare among the sectors under greatest pressure; healthcare private-credit defaults rose to 9.9%. African Finance: NGX chief Temi Popoola called for better links between early-stage firms, private investors and public markets to help build globally competitive African businesses. Markets and Trade: Malaysia’s palm oil council expects prices to stay above RM4,600 a tonne in November as seasonal output declines and biodiesel demand supports the market. The country’s Islamic capital market reached RM2.7 trillion in 2025. Gulf Outlook: The IMF forecasts UAE growth of 7.7% in 2027, citing policy measures and alternative trade routes that have helped cushion regional disruption.

Corporate Accountability: Meta was ordered to pay New Mexico $25 billion over alleged privacy deception on Facebook, the largest fine against the company; Meta is appealing. Investment: Bulgaria’s prime minister told German business leaders that German investment is driving industrial growth and highlighted opportunities in high-tech manufacturing. Digital Economy: Southeast Asia’s digital economy is forecast to grow 17% to $368 billion in 2026, with AI a key driver. Business Costs: New Zealand’s Commerce Commission capped interchange fees on commercial credit cards, projecting $40 million in annual savings for businesses. Potential Mega-Merger: Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees to discuss a possible combination; their shares rose after Elon Musk confirmed the talks. Corporate Scrutiny: Indonesian police named 11 companies, including three foreign-invested firms, as suspects in investigations into forest and land fires. Industrial Shift: Sarawak’s premier says the next five years will focus on moving from assembly work to technology creation and higher-value growth.

SpaceX Surge: Revenue jumped 161% to $14.6 billion in the third quarter, and the company returned to profit as its AI business out-earned Starlink. Elon Musk says Tesla and SpaceX committees are weighing a possible merger. Southeast Asia’s Digital Economy: Regional gross merchandise value is forecast to grow 17% to $368 billion in 2026, with AI adoption and e-commerce driving expansion; the market could exceed $1 trillion by 2035. Transport Costs: Record UK diesel prices are squeezing hauliers, with nearly 60% of transport and storage firms very concerned. Industry groups are urging government support as higher fuel bills threaten to spread through supply chains. Nigeria’s Tech Sector: Five companies have exited, wound down services or withdrawn business lines this year, highlighting how currency volatility, high operating costs and limited funding are undermining profitability. Small-Business Rules: Malaysia’s prime minister says the government will review digital-platform practices, including high commissions and restrictive terms, to improve competition and protect local businesses.